Evicted from Opportunity: Labor Market Effects of Housing Loss in High-Productivity Cities

Abstract

How important is stable housing near high-paying jobs for long-run career growth? We study San Francisco Ellis Act withdrawals, which remove rent-controlled buildings from the rental market, and compare displaced tenants with tenants in nearby rent-controlled buildings. Six years after eviction, displaced workers earn about $13,000 less (20 percent of baseline earnings) and live in lower-value housing and neighborhoods. Losses are largest for younger workers and remain large even for movers of 5-25 km, who transition to smaller, lower-paying firms and face longer commutes. We develop an equilibrium model of frictional housing and job search, costly commuting, localized search, and human-capital accumulation, calibrated to the Bay Area. The model quantitatively matches the eviction effects because central locations offer higher wages and faster wage growth; displacement reduces access to both and slows progression up the spatial job ladder. Counterfactuals show that improving access to central housing reduces losses more than temporary rent or commuting subsidies.

Publication
Working Paper